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Football Game Tips - Money Management — an article on the Smart Living Network
May 6 at 8:04 AMComments: 0 Faves: 0

Football Game Tips - Money Management

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The search for profits does not end once you have found the best tips for football games. There is still much to be done to ensure a steady profit. Money management is as important as using the right tips for soccer games.
But in the rush to get their money, most people overlook this important aspect of football games. So what is money management? Let's face it: You bet on two football games. You know that one will make a profit 80% of the time and the other will have a 50-50 chance of winning. You want to put more money into the fight with an 80% chance of profits, wouldn't you? It's money .
It's basically managing your money to tackle risk. So logic says that on the risky bets, you have to risk less money, and on the bets that are stronger, you have to bet more money. This may seem like common sense to you, but it is often overlooked.
Now the next question is: How do we calculate how much to put on a team? The most common method is to spend the same amount (level bet) on each choice. While this may work in the long run, in the short term, keep an eye on long sequences of losers from the larger priced football tips. Four or five losers in a row can quickly deplete your bank. Therefore, it may be better to look for a different approach.
Another approach suggested by many is the Kelly criterion. Kelly, however, requires that you know the probability of a win. The odds size is then determined by first converting the offered price to a probability. Then you need to estimate the probability of your bet winning. The difference between the sportsbook's price probability and your probability should be positive. If negative, drop this soccer tip like a ton of bricks and move on to the next match. The size of the stake is then calculated using this difference in probability. A larger difference indicates a larger investment and a small difference indicates a smaller investment.
As you can imagine, the average person cannot estimate the likelihood of his football prediction winning. So this method is of little use to him. Yes, the mathematicians and professionals are excited about this formula and don't get me wrong, it's great in theory - but it fails in practice. If it fails for at least 90% of the people who try to use it and I guess you and I are included.
Instead, I prefer to use the available average price. Sports books have examined the struggles in depth and it is not often that they misrepresent prices. So why not use this to our advantage? This makes our enemies greatest strength to their weakness. Yes, I know that disruptions happen, but if you look at sports book prices over a long period of time, you will find that if they quote a result with equal money, that result will occur very close to 50% of the time.
So, using this as the true probability of the outcome, we can accurately calculate how much we should invest on each football tip.

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